To All Our GLP Clients: Nobody Knows What's Coming on 28 October. Here's What We Actually Do Know.
A note to our Landlords and Vendors across the West End and London in general — from Rob Hill, Director, Greater London Properties who specialise in Residential Sales, Lettings & Property Management.
I've had four conversations this month that started the same way.
A landlord in Fitzrovia, two doors down from a property we've managed since 2011, ringing to ask whether she should sell before the Budget. A vendor in Bloomsbury who'd read something about a "seller's tax" on homes over £500,000 and wanted to know if he should pull his flat off the market. A couple in Clerkenwell who'd heard the mansion tax threshold was dropping to £1.5m and were doing the maths on a flat they've owned since 2004. And a long-standing client with three units around Soho who simply said: "Rob, I don't know what I'm supposed to be planning for any more."
That last one is the honest version of all four. And it's the reason I'm writing this.
I started GLP in 2003 out of a small office in Soho. Since then we've traded through the financial crisis, the 2016 stamp duty surcharge, Section 24, Brexit, a pandemic, a mini-budget that put mortgage rates through the roof, and now the biggest overhaul of the private rented sector since 1988. Every single one of those arrived wrapped in the same fog of speculation. And every single time, the people who did best were not the ones who guessed the Budget correctly. They were the ones who separated what was actually law from what was newspaper column inches — and then made decisions based on their own circumstances rather than the mood of the moment.
So let's do that. Here's what's settled, what genuinely isn't, and what the numbers in our own market are telling us.
What is already law — no guessing required
This is the part that gets lost in the noise, and it's the part that actually affects your bottom line.
Making Tax Digital arrived in April. Since 6 April 2026, landlords whose combined gross property and self-employment income exceeded £50,000 in the 2024–25 tax year have been inside MTD for Income Tax. That means digital record-keeping and four quarterly submissions a year — 7 August, 7 November, 7 February and 7 May — plus a final declaration. The threshold falls to £30,000 in April 2027 and £20,000 in April 2028, which will eventually pull in the overwhelming majority of private landlords. HMRC has said there's a penalty grace period for late quarterly updates in the first year. That grace period does not last.
Rental profits get their own, higher tax rates from April 2027. Property income will be taxed at 22%, 42% and 47% — two percentage points above the equivalent general income rates. This was confirmed in the November 2025 Budget and is happening regardless of what is announced on 28 October. Combine it with Section 24 still restricting mortgage interest relief to a basic-rate credit, and income tax thresholds frozen until the end of the decade, and the direction of travel is not subtle.
Capital gains. For 2026/27 the rates are 18% within your remaining basic-rate band and 24% above it. The annual exempt amount is £3,000 — it was £12,300 as recently as 2022/23. And if tax is due on a residential disposal, you have 60 days from completion to report and pay. I have seen that deadline catch out sensible, organised people more times than any other rule in the system.
The High Value Council Tax Surcharge — the "mansion tax." Announced in November 2025, it applies to English properties over £2m from April 2028, at £2,500 to £7,500 a year depending on value. It is not in force yet. The consultation on how it will work closed on 14 July.
The Renters' Rights Act, Phase 1, has been live since 1 May. Section 21 is gone. All assured shorthold tenancies are now periodic. Rental bidding is banned. Rent increases can only be made once a year, by Section 13 notice. Penalties for getting it wrong run to £7,000, and up to £40,000 for repeat breaches. The PRS Database begins its regional rollout later this year; the Ombudsman follows in 2028.
What genuinely isn't decided
Andy Burnham became Prime Minister on 20 July. Chancellor John Healey has confirmed the Budget for Wednesday 28 October 2026. Between now and then, you will read a great deal that is speculation dressed as reporting.
What we can say: stamp duty has been ruled out for change at this Budget, and the idea of a single annual property tax replacing SDLT and council tax has been rejected — at this stage. Rent controls have been ruled out for England. Angela Rayner is back as Housing Secretary.
What we can't say: council tax reform is still very much alive, the Prime Minister has been openly critical of the current banding system, and there have been reports the £2m mansion tax threshold could fall to £1.5m — which would bring roughly 150,000 more homes into scope. None of that is confirmed. Anyone telling you otherwise in August is guessing.
What our market is actually doing
Here's where I'd gently push back on the doom. The average London home is around £542,000, down roughly 2% year on year, making us the weakest-performing English region on that measure. Prime London prices are sitting at around 2013 levels, some 10% below their 2014 peak — with Knightsbridge and Belgravia nearly 30% below peak and Chelsea around 20% below. One of the large corporate agencies recorded a 4.8% fall across prime central London in 2025.
That is a genuinely difficult picture if you bought at the top. It is a very different picture if you're a buyer, or if you're a long-term owner who bought before 2014 and is looking at a gain, not a loss.
On the lettings side, the fundamentals remain firm. London is currently the only English region where rental demand is rising — up around 6%. Rental supply across the country sits 20–30% below pre-pandemic levels. Average new-let rents in London are around £2,187 a month, roughly 60% above the England average. Growth has cooled to about 2%, which is slower than the frantic years — but rents are not falling off a cliff, and the structural shortage underpinning them isn't going anywhere.
One more figure, and it's the one that made me want to write this: in March, the London Assembly Housing Committee found that 65% of London renters had either not heard of the Renters' Rights Act or didn't understand what it meant for them. Six weeks before it changed their tenancy.
If two-thirds of tenants are in the dark, the landlords and agents who aren't have a real advantage — not a commercial one, a practical one. Fewer disputes. Cleaner possession routes when they're genuinely needed. Compliant rent reviews. Fewer £7,000 mistakes.
The point about advice
I'm not an accountant, and I'd be doing you a disservice to pretend otherwise. Nothing above is tax advice, and anything involving incorporation, disposal timing or your specific CGT position needs a qualified adviser looking at your actual numbers.
But there's a category of knowledge that sits between "general news" and "your accountant" — and that's where a good agent lives. What a two-bed off Berwick Street genuinely lets for this month. Whether the block next door has a service charge issue that will show up in enquiries. How the new possession grounds are actually being applied in practice, rather than in theory. Whether the buyer offering 6% under asking has a chain or a mortgage in principle worth the paper it's printed on.
That's street-by-street, property-by-property knowledge. It was the entire reason I set GLP up in the first place, and it matters more in an uncertain market than it ever does in a confident one.
What we'd suggest doing between now and October
Not much, honestly — and that's deliberate.
Don't make a major decision purely to beat a Budget you can't predict. We watched people rush transactions ahead of November 2025 and end up worse off than if they'd held. Speculation moves markets in both directions.
Do get your compliance house in order. Check whether you're in MTD now or next April. Make sure your tenancy documentation reflects the post-May regime. Diarise your Section 13 dates.
Do model 2027, not just 2026. The property income rates are coming. Know what they mean for your net position before you decide anything.
Do get a realistic current valuation — not to list, just to know. Half the anxiety I hear on the phone comes from people working off a number they last checked in 2022.
Come and have a chat
This isn't a pitch. We're not asking you to instruct us or switch to us. We track the legislation, we read the consultations, and we sit in shop fronts across London watching this market move in real time, every day. If any of the above raises a question about your property, your tenancy, or your timing — pick up the phone, drop us an email, or just walk in. Have a coffee. Ask us what we're actually seeing.
We've been here since 2003, and we're not going anywhere. Whatever lands on 28 October, we'll be reading it properly the same afternoon — and we'll tell you what it means in plain English.
I hope you are enjoying your summer where ever you may be and we look forward to speaking with you.
Kind Regards, Rob Hill, Founder & Director
Greater London Properties
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This article is for general information and reflects the position as at August 2026. It is not tax, legal or financial advice. Please speak to a qualified accountant or solicitor about your individual circumstances.